Nepal has emerged as the third country in India’s immediate neighborhood to witness a violent uprising that has toppled its government in recent years.
Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned after clashes between protesters and police left over 20 people dead. The unrest, triggered by a social media ban, led to a nationwide curfew, with the army deployed to restore order after demonstrators stormed the parliament and set fire to several politicians’ residences, according to the BBC.
Many observers compared the chaos in Kathmandu to the political turmoil in Bangladesh last year and Sri Lanka in 2022. While both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are close neighbors of India, Delhi maintains a particularly important relationship with Kathmandu due to historical, economic, and strategic ties.
Nepal shares an extensive open border of more than 1,750 km (466 miles) with five Indian states: Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Bihar, and West Bengal. The Indian government is closely monitoring developments, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi reacting swiftly. On X, Modi expressed his grief over the loss of young lives and emphasized that “stability, peace, and prosperity of Nepal are of utmost importance,” urging Nepalese citizens to support peace. He also convened an emergency security meeting with his cabinet to assess the situation.
Experts note that India was caught off guard by the rapid escalation in Nepal, similar to the surprise following Sri Lanka’s 2022 uprising, which forced then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee. Nepal’s strategic location, bordering China’s Western Theatre Command and serving as a key route to the Indo-Gangetic plains, makes any instability a serious concern for India, according to Maj Gen (Retd) Ashok Mehta.
The unrest also affects the large Nepalese diaspora in India, estimated at 3.5 million, many of whom maintain close family and cultural ties with communities across the border. Under a 1950 treaty, Nepalis can freely work and travel in India without visas, and around 32,000 Gurkha soldiers serve in the Indian army under a longstanding agreement. Religious connections are also strong, with Hindu pilgrims visiting temples such as Muktinath in Nepal each year.
Economically, Nepal depends heavily on Indian exports, particularly oil and food, with bilateral trade totaling approximately $8.5 billion annually. Despite a fragile calm returning to Kathmandu, experts warn that India must tread carefully, as widespread anger persists among protesters against all major Nepalese political parties, including the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN-UML) led by Oli, the Nepali Congress under Sher Bahadur Deuba, and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda).
With both India and China competing for influence in Nepal, the Himalayan nation’s strategic location amplifies regional stakes. The nature of the incoming administration remains uncertain, and India must navigate the transition cautiously to avoid scenarios similar to Bangladesh’s political tensions following Hasina’s interim administration. Past disputes, such as the 2019 border map disagreement with Nepal, also underline the delicate nature of bilateral ties.
Experts recommend that India actively engage with Nepal’s new administration and its youth, who are frustrated with limited opportunities. Suggestions include expanding student fellowships and employment programs. With SAARC largely inactive, India faces a complex challenge managing political instability across its neighborhood, while simultaneously contending with strained relations with Pakistan, tensions with Bangladesh, and the ongoing civil war in Myanmar.
Maj Gen Mehta argues, “India’s pursuit of great power ambitions cannot succeed without ensuring a secure and stable neighborhood.”
